Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/23-25, likely voters):
Joe Garcia (D): 41
Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 45
(MoE: ±5%)
The only other poll we’ve seen of this race was a Bendixen survey from June that showed GOP incumbent Mario Diaz-Balart in a similarly tight spot: leading Garcia 44-39.
The most impressive part for Garcia? Obama is losing this district by a 53-38 margin, so he’s outperforming the top of the ticket by a significant margin. Markos notes that a new SUSA poll shows Obama on the upswing in Southeast Florida, so perhaps this margin may improve.
Garcia still faces a tough fight ahead of him in this R+4.4 district, but this is clearly shaping up to be the toughest battle of Mario Diaz-Balart’s career.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.